INDIA: According to a recent UN study, India is one of the peripheral countries where terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), and the Islamic State (IS) intend to grow their influence.
According to the report from the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of the UN Security Council, Al Qaeda is regrouping in Afghanistan under Taliban leadership.
However, what is more, concerning is that there are still some 200 active members of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), the parent terrorist group’s South Asia-focused affiliate, who may be plotting attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.
The report highlights the grooming of an affiliate by AQIS for Kashmir operations. Additionally, it raises the alarm about Afghanistan, now under Taliban rule, potentially becoming the epicentre of global terrorism, with around 20 militant groups operating within its borders. While expanding their network at home in India, the supporters of IS also encourage recruits to join jihadi groups outside India.
As per reports, around 200 people, notably from Kerala, have left India to join these organisations. Despite the relatively low number compared to India’s large Muslim population, their involvement has had a significant impact on the domestic network, forming a significant channel for advice and communication with organisations in Syria and Afghanistan.
As stated in a report by the Washington-based US Institute of Peace (USIP), Umar Nisar Bhat was one such individual who benefited from this link. He played a central role in the pro-IS network in India from the establishment of ISJK, actively involved in propagating their ideology until his arrest in July 2021.
The threat in the region is not only from the Taliban or the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but also from the ISKP, which has become a dominant terrorist organisation in Afghanistan.
The IS’s influence stretches beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan, encompassing neighbouring countries like India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka.
The UN report reveals that Afghanistan serves as an ideological and logistical hub for Al Qaeda, enabling them to recruit new fighters and clandestinely rebuild their external operations capability.
As per the UN report, the core Al Qaeda group in Afghanistan remains stable, with an estimated 30 to 60 individuals, while the country’s entire combatant population is around 400. The report identifies Osama Mehmood as the AQIS chief.
One of the most concerning findings of the UN study is that Al Qaeda continues to have “a close and symbiotic” relationship with the Taliban regime. Al Qaeda members “infiltrate law enforcement agencies and public administration bodies” with the support of high-ranking Taliban leaders, ensuring the safety of the organisation’s cells throughout Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda’s ability to carry out significant terror acts, however, “remains diminished while its intent remains firm.” According to the study, Al Qaeda is attempting to improve relations with terrorist organisations outside of Afghanistan, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), and Jamaat Ansarullah.
Meanwhile, there has been a verbal conflict between TTP and ISKP, where both accuse each other of having connections with regional intelligence agencies. According to a UN report, ISIL-KP is considered the most significant terrorist threat in Afghanistan and the broader region. In recent times, ISIL-KP has formed strong ties with AQIS and recruited individuals from India and Pakistan to join their terrorist networks.
The Indian government is particularly concerned about the AQIS’ aspirations towards India and Kashmir, which have been monitored since 2010. Despite a UN report from 2017 stating that Al Qaeda hasn’t made significant progress in Kashmir, the recent UN report indicates a potential renewed effort to revitalise their network.
On the other hand, based on the USIP report, the IS has struggled to mobilise large numbers of supporters in India to join the Levant or engage in extremist activities locally. The IS presence in India started with the establishment of pro-Islamic State groups in the Jammu and Kashmir region under Indian administration.
According to the USIP report, in July 2017, supporters adopted the name “Islamic State in Jammu and Kashmir” (ISJK). However, it was only in May 2019 that the IS officially established a separate province in India, which also included Kashmir.
The report also highlights that the AQIS-ISIL-KP nexus has entered India, and there have been instances of recruitment from Kerala, where some missing youth were reported to have joined IS. Additionally, between 2013 and 2016, several arrests of youth from Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Delhi, and Odisha were linked to the AQIS.
The UN report has expressed concerns about the outlawed TTP potentially becoming a regional threat while having a safe base in Afghanistan. India has seen fewer attacks than other countries in the region due to its improved counterterrorism capabilities since the 2008 Mumbai attack.
According to a report by an Indian news portal, from September 2021, the National Investigation Agency (NIA), India’s counterterrorism agency, has accused 168 people of having connections to the IS across 37 cases. Although the figure may seem low compared to India’s Muslim population, it raises concerns about radicalisation in the country for both the community and the government.
The USIP report recommends that countering radicalisation can be achieved by promoting political pluralism and showing respect towards minorities. Government policies that discriminate, marginalise, or resort to violence against minorities in South Asian countries have led to deep domestic divisions, pushing some members of these groups to seek support from organisations like IS.
To reduce these risks, India should prioritise promoting political and religious pluralism while ensuring the well-being of all minority communities.
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