INDIA. Mumbai: Despite the third COVID-19 wave and emergence of Omicron, India’s economy on 73rd Republic Day, remains strong. Along with this, monetary and credit conditions are gradually improving, although inflation continues to mount.
The R day is being celebrated by implementing COVID-19 protocols with a limited number of guests at Rajpath in New Delhi. As per the reports, there will not be a foreign guest for the R Day function.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host the first India-Central Asia Summit in “virtual” format on January 27, a day after Republic Day, with the participation of the Presidents of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Future Prospects
It is imperative that a stock of the various issues confronting the country is taken on Republic Day. As per the RBI, overall economic activity in India remains strong, with upbeat consumer and business confidence and upticks in several incoming high-frequency indicators.
Economy
However, the economy continues to be plagued by bad loans in the public sector. RBI in its recent financial stability report expressed concern about bad loans in MSME and the stress it is causing. The public sector banks have written off bad debts worth Rs 2.08 lakh crore in the recent past.
RBI’s structural model estimates for 2022-2023, indicate real GDP growth at 7.8 percent. While announcing the monetary policy, the RBI had forecast the growth for Financial Year 2022 at 9.5 percent, while the Consumer Price Index inflation projection was revised downward, from 5.7 percent to 5.3 percent.
FDI
The Foreign Direct Investment is likely to increase by 20-30 percent this year and may approach the pre-pandemic level of 2019. FDI equity inflow grew by 112 percent in the first four months of FY 2021-22 ($20.42 billion) compared to the same period a year ago ($9.61 billion). Karnataka was the top recipient state during FY 2022 with a 45 percent share of the total FDI equity inflows followed by Maharashtra with 23 percent and Delhi with 12 percent. However, the foreign exchange reserves declined by $878 million to stand at $632.736 billion. Simultaneously the gold reserves inched up by $14 million to $39.405 billion and the country’s reserve position with the IMF remained constant at $5.207 billion.
Loss of jobs
As per the report of the Centre for Monitoring India Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate in the country touched a four-month high and it was 7.91 percent in December 2021. The urban and rural unemployment rate was 9.3 percent and 7.3 percent respectively. The unemployment rate is expected to be around 6.20 percent this year and 6.50 percent in 2023.
Foodgrains
The Union Agriculture Ministry has predicted a bumper production and has set a target of 307.33 million tonnes of food grains. The targets for rice, wheat, coarse cereals, pulses, and oilseeds, are 121.10 million tonnes, 110 million tonnes, 51.21 million tonnes, 25 million tonnes, and 38.4 million tonnes respectively, in the current crop year.
Population
The current population of India is in the region of 140 crores which is equivalent to 17.7% of the world population and the country ranks number 2 in the list of countries by population. India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2024.
35.0 % of the population is urban and 65 percent rural. The female population is 48.04 percent while the male population is 51.96 percent. As per the fifth National Family Health Survey (NFHS) for 2019-2021, India’s sex ratio is 1000 (men)-1020 (women). However, the sex ratio at birth continues to differ. The ratio of Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu is 775 women per 1,000 men, while in Delhi (rural) it is 859 women per 1000 men.
Literacy
On average 73.5% of people in rural areas and 87.7% of people in urban areas are literate. The male and female literacy is 84.7% and 70.3% respectively. Kerala has the highest literacy rate of 96.2%, followed by Mizoram with 91.33 %, according to the National Statistical Office survey. The states with the lowest literacy rate include Bihar-61.80 %, Arunachal Pradesh-65.38 %, Rajasthan-66.11 %, and Jharkhand-66.41 % and Andhra Pradesh-67.02 %.
India is expected to become one of the most powerful countries and emerge as a “World Guru”, in the time to come. Let us hope that we become a superpower soon.
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